This year could become the hottest on record due to rising temperatures amid the natural phenomenon El Niño.
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Thus, in 2023 the average was approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius higher than in the pre-industrial era (before the 18th century). According to preliminary expert estimates, this year the temperature will rise by 1.3 – 1.6 degrees.
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“First of all, of course, climate change is to blame. Burning fossil fuels increases the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which leads to an increase in average global temperatures,” scientists say.
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Another significant reason for what is happening is called El Niño, a natural phenomenon characterized by an anomalous increase in temperature on the surface of the water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
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The longer El Niño lasts, the warmer the Pacific Ocean and the air above it become, said Ulla Heed, a specialist at the nonprofit ocean modeling organization [C]Worthy. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration specialist Michael McPhaden said that El Niño takes several months to reach its peak, so there may be a delay between the warming of the Pacific Ocean and the increase in temperature at the Earth’s surface.
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According to meteorologist Petteri Taalas, 2024 will be even hotter, and droughts or floods will only become more frequent. So, last year, dry weather in Central America has already led to the drying up of Lake Gatun, which feeds the Panama Canal.
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“High temperatures last year melted much of the sea ice, which could alter the jet stream across the North Atlantic, said Vikki Thompson, a climate scientist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. As a result, storms in Europe could become stronger or appear in new places”, he added.
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In addition, due to the El Niño phenomenon, changes will occur that can greatly affect the agricultural sector, and will also aggravate the situation with forest fires, for example in Canada and the United States, experts believe.
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Humanity has probably passed a certain turning point in the climate system, scientists conclude.
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Global temperatures could reach record highs in the next five years, according to the UN World Meteorological Organization. This will be facilitated by both the anthropogenic factor, that is, greenhouse gases, and natural circumstances, including the El Niño phenomenon, which will affect not only the average temperature on the planet, but also the precipitation pattern.
