American professor Allan Lichtman made a forecast according to which Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris will win the upcoming US presidential elections.
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Lichtman has been predicting the outcome of US presidential elections since 1984. During this time, he predicted the winner nine times and was wrong only once, when he predicted victory for Democrat Al Gore in 2000, but Republican George W. Bush won. Because that election was plagued by a recount scandal in Florida, the professor believes his prediction was accurate from the start.
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“The Democrats will retain control of the White House, and Kamala Harris will become the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said in a video published on the New York Times website.
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Lichtman is known for the accuracy of his predictions, based on a system of 13 questions that can only be answered with “yes” or “no.” The “13 Keys to the White House” formula was developed by Lichtman and the famous mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. It has since been used to predict the outcome of presidential elections in the United States with a high level of success. If the answer to six or more questions is “yes”, it always suggests that the incumbent party will win. If the answer to six or more questions is “no,” voters will turn against the party in power. The questions cover the economic situation of the country, social unrest, the presence of scandals, major successes and failures of the candidates, as well as their personal charisma.
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According to his forecast, a positive answer this year can be given to eight “key” questions: were the results of the midterm elections successful for the ruling party; is there a third party; whether the authorities’ policy was successful in the short and long term; whether there were serious political changes, social protests, or a scandal in the White House; whether the presidential contender from the opposing party has outstanding charisma. Thus, according to Lichtman, the victory of the Democrats in the US presidential elections is a foregone conclusion.
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The US presidential elections will take place on November 5th. Former President Donald Trump is nominated by the Republican Party for the post of head of state. Democratic – Vice President Kamala Harris.
