Trump may find it rather hard to sever the deal, the analyst notes
US president-elect, Donald Trump, will not cancel the deal concluded over the Iranian nuclear program when he takes office, but he may resume sanctions against Tehran, the science doyen of the Institute of US and Canada Studies, Sergey Rogov, said on Tuesday.
“Trump described the deal with Iran as the worst-ever in history. He claimed that Tehran might resume its nuclear program and that the terms of the agreement did not prohibit it from working on missile technologies,” Rogov recalled. “No country in the world makes inter-continental ballistic missiles without nuclear warheads.”
Trump may find it rather hard to sever the deal, Rogov believes.
“Neither Russia, nor China, nor the three European countries concerned will agree to abrogating the agreement without sufficient reasons,” he said. “If the next US president will eventually dare take such a step, the Congress will be the first to laud it. But the relations with both Europe and China will turn for the worse.”
Rogov sees another likely scenario – prolongation of the anti-Iranian sanctions by another ten years.
“This is most likely to happen,” he speculates. “Congress may do this job for the White House and the deal will be disrupted in this way.”
The question arises, therefore, Rogov said why Tehran should observe the terms of the agreement.
“Elections in Iran are due soon. If (the current president, Hassan) Rouhani loses, there will emerge a chance to provoke Iran into quitting the agreement,” he said.
“This tactic may work,” Rogov believes. “This is precisely the tactic Trump is likely to follow, bearing in mind that it will enjoy bipartisan support in Congress.”
Background
The talks over the Iranian nuclear dossier began back in 2004, after the western countries accused Tehran of working on a secret military nuclear program. Starting from 2006 the talks with Iran were conducted by a sextet of international mediators – the five member-states of the UN Security Council and Germany. In 2006-2010 the United Nations, the United States and the European Union introduced several packages of sanctions against Iran.
On July 14, 2015 the first final Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) for the Iranian nuclear program was agreed on July 14, 2015. Iran pledged to produce no weapons-grade plutonium, to have no more than 300 kg of uranium enriched to 3.67% for a period of fifteen years, reequip its nuclear facilities and use them exclusively for peaceful purposes. The weapons embargo imposed by the UN Security Council will remain effective for five years, the ban on the supply of ballistic technologies to Iran, for eight years and IAEA specialists will be inspecting Iranian nuclear facilities for 25 years.
On January 16, 2016 the United Nations, the United States and the European Union lifted their economic and financial restrictions from Iran they had imposed over its nuclear program. The US decrees on sanctions were suspended but not canceled altogether.
During his election campaign Trump said that the Barack Obama Administration’s nuclear agreement with Iran was disgraceful for the United States. He vowed to achieve its revision, should he be elected president.
