Just after Scott Brown’s remarkable victory in Massachusetts, GOP strategist Patrick Hynes pondered its significance for other states in a post-election online analysis. Hynes’ concluded that if New Hampshire goes the way of Massachusetts, it could be very bad news for the Democrats:

Voters in New Hampshire and Massachusetts have traditionally been polar opposites. “Taxachusetts” has earned the contempt of Live Free or Die skinflints. But over the past two election cycles (and signs of this can be traced further back), New Hampshire Democrats have been in the ascent and the political climates of these two New England states have, at times, become very similar.

The entire southern boundary of New Hampshire borders Massachusetts and many of the towns on either side are indistinguishable. Tens of thousands of families whose income earners work in Massachusetts nevertheless set up house on the New Hampshire side of the border to take advantage of tax benefits. These areas represent some of the fastest growing communities in New Hampshire. A majority of the state’s population lives in two counties that border Massachusetts, which are occasionally derided as “Massachusetts North.”

Even Hynes was likely shocked by the results of a new poll which indicated that liberal U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy is rapidly giving up ground to a well-financed Republican opponent who has the backing of Scott Brown’s top strategists:

The WPRI-12 poll showed the Rhode Island Democrat with a 56 percent unfavorability rating in his district – a negative that grows to 62 percent statewide.

Only 35 percent of voters in Kennedy’s district said they would vote to re-elect him. Another 31 percent said they’d consider a different candidate and 28 percent said they would vote to replace him, according to the poll.

Republican John J. Loughlin II, a veteran state lawmaker, formally announced his campaign yesterday against Kennedy, saying the son of liberal icon Edward M. Kennedy is out of touch with Rhode Island voters as he seeks a ninth two-year term.

If the overall survey numbers sound bad, the poll’s internals look even worse for Kennedy:

Majorities in every age demo give Kennedy either “fair” or “poor” job approval numbers

Only 40% of women give him “excellent” or “good” ratings, with 57% negative

59% of union households rate him fair or poor

Democrats approve of Kennedy 57%/40%, while independents show 25%/72%

On ObamaCare, the overall mood of the state is significantly negative, 38%/50%

Loughlin, who achieved the rank of Lieutenant Colonel in the US Army Reserve, spent 10 years on flight status as a helicopter pilot. In 1986, he became the the Adjutant General’s Public Affairs Officer, a full-time job in the Rhode Island National Guard. Loughlin saw duty in Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1995 and 1996, and he trained units for duty in Iraq for Operation Iraqi Freedom at Ft. Bragg, North Carolina in 2003. Loughlin is a businessman who owns and operates a television, radio and film production company, producing television commercials as well as industrial videos for corporate clients.

Loughlin very astutely hired Eric Fehrnstrom and Peter Flaherty, two of Brown’s top consultants. for his fledging campaign. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) took a look at Loughlin’s campaign and found it sufficiently promising to provide national support:

“Independents are running from the Democratic Party, and that benefits candidates across the northeast,” said Tory Mazzola, spokesman for the NRCC.

It’s been a tough year for Kennedy, who has struggled with depression, alcoholism and addiction for much of his life. Rhode Island Bishop Thomas J. Tobin denied him communion over the Catholic Congressman’s pro-abortion stance, and he botched his endorsement of Brown’s Massachusetts opponent Martha Coakley, referring to her as “Marsha.”

“Camelot’s over,” declared GOP consultant Holly Robichaud, the Herald’s Lone Republican blogger.

But a defiant Kennedy has characterized Brown’s election as “a joke.” If the son of the man who used to occupy the Senate office which is now Brown’s isn’t able to turn things around for himself in Rhode Island, Patrick Kennedy may discover in November that the joke is on him.

- JP

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